Experts Say Slowing Regime Consolidation Likely To Spark Violent Crackdown

The sense of inevitability around the regime’s consolidation may be cracking, but as it does, the threat of violence is increasing

Video Overview

Summary

Americans across the political spectrum are increasingly withdrawing support and actively resisting regime abuses of power. Recent analyses by trusted experts suggest that regime attempts at consolidation are struggling in the face of widespread and growing noncooperation. This will almost certainly result in desperate and violent action on the part of the regime to retain control.

Reasons for hope are increasing

While fear of the Trump regime’s current trajectory is warranted, recent expert analyses point to a shift occurring beneath the surface of daily headlines. In Just Security, Adam Fefer and Maria J. Stephan argue that the “political winds are shifting” as Americans “disapprove of — and are refusing to accept — mounting abuses of power.” Likewise, historian Heather Cox Richardson has argued for weeks that the regime is facing increasingly strong headwinds. She has noted that “the larger picture is not of an administration that is consolidating power; it is an administration that is crashing in on itself.” Similarly, historian Timothy Snyder sees regime escalations at home and abroad as signs of underlying weakness. Together, they point to a list of developments in support of this assessment.

• Fractures in regime pillars of support Authoritarian regimes rely on specific pillars of support like security forces, business leaders, and religious organizations to maintain power. When support from these pillars begins to weaken, the regime destabilizes. Experts are seeing the emergence of such cracks in key pillars. This includes the loss of support from key fundraisers, statements of opposition from powerful religious organizations, criticism from veterans and military families, and recent bipartisan losses for the regime in Congress.

• Widespread Popular Noncooperation The scale of public resistance is overtaking regime support. We have witnessed perhaps the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. Economic noncooperation has forced the hand of large companies like Disney after they caved to regime pressure. In recent elections, voters have resoundingly rejected the regime with many MAGA voters even defecting and voting against GOP candidates who they now realize do not represent their interests. In Minneapolis, law enforcement refuses to cooperate with ICE.

• Physical Decline and Growing Vulnerabilities The perception of a well-oiled authoritarian machine is false. The regime increasingly shows signs of frailty. Trump falls asleep regularly on television, including in his own Cabinet meetings. His increasingly unhinged rants combined with reports of cognitive tests and MRIs call into question his mental fitness. Meanwhile, there are growing vulnerabilities to his policy agenda and his base of support. His tariff policy took a beating in oral arguments at the Supreme Court and it seems likely the court will declare them unconstitutional. Finally, there is broad support for the release of the Epstein files and growing disgust with the regime’s delay in their release despite almost unanimous support for doing so in Congress.

Future Implications

While the regime is taking some serious blows, it is not time to let up or to take a victory lap. It is unlikely that we will see a quiet or graceful exit by Trump and his cronies. As Richardson warns, “the dying mule kicks hardest and a cornered rat bites.” The situation will likely get “really ugly,” she says, before it is resolved. Snyder concurs, assessing that “self-terrorism” is the regime’s most likely next step. This will involve inviting domestic terrorist attacks to justify violent internal crackdowns against political opponents.

• Recently leaked official memos indicate that the regime is already creating lists of so-called “extremists” and “domestic terrorists,” with criteria for inclusion on the list requiring nothing more than expressing disagreement with regime ideology.

• Influential regime media figures have claimed it is “borderline illegal” to criticize ICE while a powerful billionaire backer of the regime has called for violent internal crackdown, including public executions.

Pro-democracy activists must continue to apply civil resistance strategically. This should involve a dual-track strategy of “binding” and “breaking.” “Breaking” involves refusing to comply with coercive acts, such as airport officials refusing to show politicized videos on screens at security checkpoints or board members resigning from corporations that do the regime’s bidding. “Binding” involves insiders quietly organizing with their colleagues to withdraw support, collect and leak information to the outside world, and act from the inside to frustrate authoritarian orders.

Finally, as one-time regime supporters begin to defect, pro-democracy activists must be prepared to bring them into a big tent alliance. Building such alliances across traditional ideological and policy lines will be essential to mobilizing the numbers needed to restore democratic, constitutional government.

The momentum is shifting. The task now is to expand upon the pro-democracy movement’s wins and further exploit the regime’s growing weaknesses.

Sources

• When Loyalties Shift: Americans’ Growing Noncooperation with Federal Abuses of Power - Just Security

• This Week in Politics | Explainer - Heather Cox Richardson

• Heather Cox Richardson: Americans are saying “Hell No!” to Trump “fascism”…and it’s working - MS NOW

• Is There Any Hope? | Explainer - Heather Cox Richardson

• Minneapolis police chief warns officers: Stop unlawful force by ICE or lose your job - MS NOW

• FBI Making List of American “Extremists,” Leaked Memo Reveals - Ken Klippentstein

• Laura Ingraham calls it “borderline illegal” for Democratic politicians to call ICE agents “thugs” - Media Matters

• Joe Lonsdale Calls For Public Hangings - The Nerd Reich

• Land War or Self-Terrorism? Trump’s Likely Next Step - Thinking About