A New Kind Of Civil War Has Already Begun. You Just Didn’t Notice (And That’s the Point)

The Trump regime is engaged in hybrid civil war against Democratic states. We must recognize it to fight it.

The conventional wisdom among the resistance has long been that the Trump regime’s escalation in places like Minnesota is designed to incite enough chaos and violence to justify invoking the Insurrection Act and declaring martial law. I have shared that assessment in the past. It is a logical conclusion based on 20th-century authoritarian playbooks. Indeed, Trump and his most vocal supporters are warning of precisely that just today.

There is another, more disturbing possibility that we must consider, however: The regime has already begun the next civil war, but in such a way that most have not noticed.

What we are witnessing is the regime’s use of Russian-style hybrid warfare tactics against an American state. This is hybrid civil warfare. And because it doesn’t look like Gettysburg or Antietam, many are failing to recognize the existential threat it poses until it is too late.

Key Characteristics of Hybrid (Civil) Warfare

To understand what is happening in Minnesota and other blue states, we must review the key characteristics of the traditional hybrid warfare playbook—a strategy perfected by Putin’s Russia—and map them onto the Trump regime’s assault on the rule of law. These include information operations, economic warfare, lawfare, the use of “little green men,” and actions just below the threshold that would justify a response by one’s adversary. All are being deployed by the Trump regime against blue cities and states right now.

Information Operations

Information operations are a core characteristic of hybrid warfare strategy. This involves the use of coordinated disinformation and psychological warfare campaigns, relying upon online influencers, social media, and a captured mainstream media. The goal is to pit people against one another, foment chaos, and generally “prepare the battlefield” for the punitive measures to follow.

We see this clearly in Minnesota. The Trump regime is engaged in a campaign of information warfare aided by its allies in the right-wing news media. This includes accusing the state of engaging in massive financial fraud related to public assistance programs and the targeted scapegoating of the Somali immigrant community to generate hysteria. The regime is even smearing and investigating the widow of the women it murdered, which sparked the current protests in the first place. This full range of dubious claims is being used to justify the federal paramilitary invasion of Minneapolis, but also as the basis for legal threats against elected officials in the state.

Economic Warfare

Hybrid warfare relies heavily on economic pressure and manipulation tactics, including boycotts, sanctions, and even coordination with organized crime.

In the case of the Trump regime’s assault on blue states, we are seeing the federal government weaponize funding and economic levers to punish dissent. Trump has followed this same playbook in California, Illinois, and now Minnesota. In each case, this involves suspension of federal assistance dollars to states as a punitive measure. The mere presence of ICE is also taking an economic toll on farmers in these states.

The regime is also deploying ICE forces to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, which will no doubt have an impact on the state’s economy. I anticipate that international travel to the state, and perhaps even domestic air travel too, will be disrupted as travelers make other arrangements or avoid the state entirely. It is also possible that ICE operations will cause chaos and delays at the airport. This deployment of ICE forces to the airport could be seen as a sort of critical infrastructure attack by the federal government on a state’s key transportation infrastructure.

Lawfare

Lawfare is the malicious and coordinated use of the legal system against one’s opponents to apply pressure and force behavioral change.

In Minnesota and elsewhere, Trump and his lackeys have threatened to arrest or investigate public officials for supposedly obstructing ICE activities or even reminding soldiers of their duty to disobey illegal orders. Trump’s DOJ tried and failed (so far) to stop California’s redistricting. This is not justice; it is the regime using the DOJ as a bludgeon.

The Veil of Deniability (“Little Green Men”)

A hallmark of the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the use of soldiers or paramilitary forces deployed without clear insignia. These are the so-called “Little Green Men.” The lack of insignia provided just enough ambiguity to confuse the situation and slow an effective response by the West.

We are seeing this exact tactic inside the United States. The initial deployment of federal forces looked identical to Russia’s strategy in Crimea. Discussion raged: Who are these men in jeans and tactical vests? Are they law enforcement? Bounty hunters? Mercenaries? In Minnesota, we see paramilitary forces, ostensibly “law enforcement” kitted out like soldiers heading into war. This ambiguity is a feature, not a bug. It quells potential responses because local officials and citizens are unsure who, exactly, they are resisting.

Action Just Below the Threshold of Response

All these tactics—information, economic, legal, and paramilitary—are meant to create maximum pressure without rising to a level that triggers a massive, unified response. Hybrid warfare creates a situation where the adversary might not even fully recognize they are under coordinated attack.

Despite the multi-pronged assault the Trump regime has unleashed on blue states, the response has largely been contained to the courts. It is only now that we are seeing local officials in Minnesota and Pennsylvania publicly contemplate using their own state law enforcement against the federal paramilitary. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has indicated he could potentially call up his own National Guard to defend Minnesotans against ICE. This hesitation is part of the hybrid civil war plan: keep the violence just low enough that the frog doesn’t realize it’s boiling until it’s dead.

Minneapolis as a “Special Military Operation”

In Ukraine, Russian hybrid warfare eventually failed to deliver the desired results, leading to a full-blown invasion. Similarly, Trump’s initial attempts at hybrid civil war against California and Illinois did not deliver total submission. Thus, we now see an escalation in Minnesota with what can only be called a full-scale paramilitary invasion of Minneapolis.

What’s more, Trump and his MAGA supporters are increasingly threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would allow Trump to deploy not just his paramilitary ICE force, but the United States military against American citizens.

However, we must remember that even after Russia carried out a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, they refused to call it war, referring to it as a “special military operation” instead. We will see the same rhetoric here. Instead of calling it what it really is—an invasion and civil war—the regime will call it a “law enforcement operation” to quell an insurrection.

All the while, the information warfare, economic warfare, and lawfare will continue unabated.

What Now?

1. Stop Waiting for the “Declaration”

Defenders of democracy must call this what it is. Stop waiting for a “declaration” or “invocation.” Martial law is, in effect, already here in Minneapolis. This focus on semantics recalls the early days when legal analysts fixated on the exact criteria for a “constitutional crisis.” That seems quaint (and dumb) now. We do not need to wait for a declaration of martial law to see that the Trump regime is engaged in hybrid warfare attacks against American states. The regime’s refusal to make a formal declaration is part of its strategy, which is paying major dividends. We cannot tie our response to the regime giving up that advantage.

2. Call ICE What It Is: A Regime Paramilitary

Democracy defenders must stop referring to ICE or CBP as “law enforcement.” They are a regime paramilitary force. ICE and the regime it serves are lawless. To continue using their preferred terminology only aids the regime’s hybrid strategy of obfuscation. What the regime calls “law enforcement” is in no way enforcing the law; they are breaking the law openly, daily, and hourly.

3. Fight Back Now

Pro-democracy citizens must fight back now before ICE becomes stronger. The public backlash to ICE has been such that actually calling out the military would likely spiral out of hand. But even if the Insurrection Act is invoked, military mobilization will not be enough to control a country of 350 million people. The U.S. military could not pacify Iraq or Afghanistan (average populations of ~45 million). They cannot pacify America if we refuse to be pacified.

Demographics, geography, and common sense are on our side. Pro-democracy forces must commence peaceful but disruptive protests immediately. Unlike the previous “No Kings” and “Hands Off” protests, there must be a focus on D.C. Get in the streets and stay there. Prepare for a long, non-violent occupation.

Outside of D.C., protests must focus on shutting down strategic regime assets: blocking ICE, Border Patrol, FBI, or military locations. We must engage in general strikes and block critical infrastructure. We must move beyond symbolic one-day protests and into long-term, disruptive occupations of key locations.

The war has already begun. It is time we started using every nonviolent tactic at our disposal to fight back. If we do not, we will face far worse.